![]() ![]() MJO: Mostly dry MJO above Northern Atlantic, without significant remnants of hurricane season. NAO / AO: Negative AO should bring some coldwaves to all North American sector, but NAO- is associated with the warm East Coast in Canada and the USA. La Nina: Strengthening La Nina should mean during AO-/NAO- phases colder planetary conditions. IOD: Slight negative phase, with the tropical system above the eastern Indian Ocean, correlates with NAO- and colder conditions in Europe. ![]() SSW: Possible fall of AO and NAO indices very low and destabilization of polar vortex very possible from late November to early January 2021-2022. NE Pacific Blob: Still not a very developed anomaly, which is bringing warm conditions and NAO+ in Europe. QBO: Easterly QBO should mean relatively increased chances for continental airflows. It´s mainly phases 4-7 when tropical systems are situated above the eastern Indian Ocean. MJO: Wet MJO above SE Asia correlates with NAO- phases above Europe, both are in December 2021 expected. ![]() Frosts up to -20☌ in British Island and Iberia, -25☌ in Balkan, Eastern Europe, and France, -30☌ in Central Europe and -35☌ in Scandinavia are very possible during the peaking of extreme coldwaves. Shorter warm periods should appear, too, but cold conditions will be leading. Many Mediterranean lows with possible blizzards, Greenlandic, Arctic, and Siberian air outbreaks are highly possible, with a strengthening of winter conditions until the New Year 2022. NAO / AO: Negative phases of North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation should bring rounds of extreme, possibly regionally historic/legendary December frosts above the wider European region /see materials on our homepage/. MJO is forecasted to be very wet above SE Asia, QBO still in easterly phase, NE Pacific Blob won´t be developed yet, SSWs should appear, negative IOD is still possible and La Nina will be strengthening. In December 2021, the lowest AO- / NAO- is generally expected, with stronger winter in Eurasia/ North Africa, and weaker winter conditions in many parts of North America. In the next years, despite stronger Sun activity, El Nino years, with a possibility relatively stronger AO-/NAO- winters are forecasted (probably until 2025).Īfter 2100, overall (approximately minimally until 2500), very low Sun activity is however according to long-term modeling studies possible, what should have a positive effect on climate change. Lower Sun activity is traditionally linked with El Ninos and NAO- / AO- phases ( 2/3 of the peak of a Little Ice Age were El Ninos and AO- / NAO-). In the last period, the first significant eruptions of the 25th cycle have appeared. Ĭontinental forecasts for Winter (in Southern Hemisphere Summer) 2021/2022 for Europe, North America, Asia, Africa, Australia and Oceania, South America and Antarctica we published during early Autumn 2021 here. It is also worth mention the Russian forecast for Siberia for Winter 2021/2022 /. The last updates of the Winter 2021/2022 forecastwe published here. In this article, we will look at the latest updates of CFS and ECMWF Winter 2021/2022 forecasts for Europe, Asia, North America and North Africa from 20. in continental Europe, very rare and regionally historic frosts up to -30☌ are according to the most aggressive GFS outputs possible /. Severe blizzards in Europe and later Asia and mountains in North Africa are possible /, and winter conditions will be strengthening very probably minimally until the New Year 2022 /. NAO index is in early Winter 2021/2022 forecasted to fall to the lowest values since extreme -35☌ frosts in Europe, -45☌ frosts in the USA, -55☌ frosts in Canada and almost -65☌ frosts in Siberia in January and February 2021, such as since extremely cold April 2021 in Europe, with -21☌ in lower situated basins and valleys below 1000 MASL /. It´s already clear, that AO- phases will bring anomalously cold start of Winter 2021/2022 already in Europe, Asia, and North Africa, temporarily, cold conditions should hit North America, too, but near NAO-, warmer East Coast in Canada and the USA is possible. ![]()
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